Journal of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination

Climate Change and the Stability of Glacier-Fed River Systems

Implications for Water Security in Vulnerable Regions

CHUKWUEMEKA JOHN

JOHN

Keywords: adaptive management, climate extremes, vulnerable regions, hydrological stability, glacier retreat

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Abstract

This study examines how climate change is reshaping the stability of glacier fed river systems and the implications for water security in vulnerable regions. Glaciers function as natural water storage, moderating seasonal and interannual variability, yet rising temperatures and altered precipitation regimes are accelerating glacier retreat worldwide. Using an integrated methodological framework combining climate data, glacier mass balance modelling, hydrological simulation, and water security indicators, the study assesses observed and projected changes in river flow magnitude, timing, variability, and extremes across glacier dependent basins. Results show widespread and persistent glacier mass loss, with short term increases in meltwater runoff followed by long term declines in river discharge as ice reserves diminish. Seasonal peak flows are shifting earlier in the year, while late season low flows are becoming more pronounced, reducing flow reliability during periods of high demand. Increased interannual variability and more frequent hydrological extremes further undermine river system stability. These changes translate directly into declining water availability, reduced predictability, and heightened risk for agriculture, hydropower generation, domestic supply, and aquatic ecosystems. The discussion highlights strong spatial differences driven by climatic setting, glacier characteristics, and governance capacity, demonstrating that vulnerability is unevenly distributed across regions. The findings underscore the limitations of water management frameworks based on historical conditions and emphasize the need for adaptive and forward-looking strategies. By explicitly linking cryospheric change to river stability and water security, this study informs climate hydrology research and supports policy planning adaptation.

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