Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Capacity in Semi-Arid Agricultural Communities: A Multi-Sectoral Analysis

Abstract

Semi-arid agricultural communities in Pakistan face growing climate-related challenges that directly impact crop productivity, water availability, and livelihood security. This study employs a multi-sectoral framework to assess climate vulnerability and adaptation capacity by integrating climatic, socioeconomic, and agricultural indicators. Using mixed methods—including field surveys, climate trend analysis, and stakeholder interviews—the research evaluates exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive strategies across selected semi-arid districts. Findings reveal heightened vulnerability due to increasing temperatures, erratic rainfall, and declining groundwater levels, while adaptive capacity remains constrained by inadequate infrastructure, low institutional support, and limited access to climate-resilient technologies. The study emphasizes the need for targeted adaptation policies, community-based resource management, and improved climate-information services to strengthen long-term resilience.